What would urban Saskatoon seats look like? 2008 Results

May 4, 2011 § Leave a comment

Here’s all results for the four Saskatoon ridings from 2008 combined and split by urban and rural polls.

Urban Rural
Green 5749 (7%) 2115 (5%)
Liberal 11431 (13%) 3105 (7%)
NDP 28827 (33%) 9912 (23%)
Conservative 40570 (47%) 28313 (65%)
Other 272 (0%) 118 (0%)
Total 86849 (58%) 43563 (64%)
Eligible 150716 68081

Here are the votes expressed as a graph.

There is a decisive rural/urban split of 18% in Conservative support and 10% in NDP support. Rural is solidly Conservative – Saskatoon has potentially more NDP support. However, Conservatives would still win the city if the eligible voters are spread out evenly. It would be nice to know how solid the Green support is – I suspect it could be very solid. Once Green, always Green. So, even if the NDP can convert Liberal votes, they still can’t paint the city red.

The question is what separate rural and urban ridings might look like?

Saskatchewan Electoral Ridings

The above is a map of the 13 electoral districts in Saskatchewan. There’s a very nice PDF file at Elections Canada. The electoral districts are huge. If the rural areas of the four Saskatoon ridings were combined into one “donut” riding (it would surround Saskatoon), they would still be within the size range of other parts of the province. However, with an eligible population of over 66,000, such a riding would be well over the usual formula for maximum riding size (there are rules, but I’ll have to find them later). Perhaps some of the outer areas of the riding could be transferred.

Here are what Elections Canada calls regional maps for Saskatoon and Regina (again, get the pdf if you are interested).

Both cities have been sliced up like a pie (although they are particularly greedy slices). If there were three ridings created in Saskatoon, one or more would have to cross the river – which given Saskatoon’s history of “east side” versus “west side”, that may not be a bad thing. Each riding would have around 50,000 eligible voters, well within the guidelines.

So, that’s a guess based on the 2008 election results. We’ll have to wait for a little while until the 2011 results are available. Next, I’m going to look at the 2008 rural / urban split for each of the 4 ridings – could the NDP have won an urban seat in 2008? This is a very speculative question because obviously three city ridings would have to be larger – what kind of votes would be added?

If I have time, I’ll look at the 2008 figures for Regina – heck, I might do an even better job formatting stuff.

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