How much of an orange tint to Saskatoon and Regina?

August 23, 2011 § Leave a comment

While my analysis of the rural / urban split for the 2011 election in Saskatoon and Regina seems to indicate that the NDP would be competitive in six new urban seats, I’m not fully convinced. The rural Conservative vote may align with conservative social policies relating to abortion, same sex marriage and the long gun registry.  I suspect this is particularly true for Maurice Vellecott in Saskatoon-Wanuskewin. With Conservative candidates who stress economic rather than social issues, the party might do well in the cities. We think there are no “Progressive Conservatives” left  – but I suspect they are still in Saskatchewan cities. Politics is also personal – Lynne Yelich, the Conservative Member of Parliament for Blackstrap, is a genuinely nice person who is serious about her community involvement. She also has the highest margin over the NDP for any Conservative in the city. She is both approachable and not particularly dogmatic. Others’ experiences may vary.

On the other hand, I saw an intense interest by young voters in the NDP. If the federal party continues to stress the environment and social justice, the youth vote in Saskatoon might become even more important.

So, just because the center left might do well in Saskatchewan’s two major cities, it’s important that it’s not taken for granted.

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