From out of right field…

October 28, 2011 § Leave a comment

This discussion of expert predictions focuses on the prospects of Herman Cain getting the Republican Presidential nomination. More importantly, it discusses how frequently political predictions are wrong because there simply isn’t enough historical data. This applies to both “experts” who use their judgement and statisticians who use polling.

So, the next time you use your “good sense” to divine the political future, have a bit of humility.

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